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Cotton output remains below pre-crisis levels in 2010/11
14 Mar '11
5 min read
China, the world's leading cotton importer, is estimated to import 15.5 million bales in 2010/11, up 42 percent from the previous year. China's 2010/11 share of global cotton imports is estimated at 40 percent, compared with 30 percent in 2009/10. Bangladesh, currently the world's second largest cotton importer, is estimated to increase imports marginally to about 3.9 million bales. Indonesia and Pakistan are estimated to import 1.9 million and 1.4 million bales, respectively, down 8 percent and 7 percent from a year ago. In South Korea and Turkey, 2010/11 imports are estimated to decline by 1 percent and 29 percent, to 1.0 million bales and 3.1 million bales, respectively.
World Cotton Consumption Declines in 2010/11
Global mill use of cotton in 2010/11 is estimated at 116.6 million bales, down 2 percent from the previous year as China's demand for the fiber weakens. China, the world's largest cotton consumer, accounts for 40 percent of global cotton mill use.
In 2010/11, China's mill use is estimated at 47.0 million bales, down 6 percent (3.0 million bales) from a year ago. Pakistan's consumption is estimated to decline 6 percent from the previous year to 10.2 million bales, the third consecutive annual decline. Mill use in Brazil, India, Turkey, and the United States is estimated to increase 2 percent, 9 percent, 2 percent, and 4 percent, respectively, from the previous year reaching 4.5 million bales, 21.5 million bales, 5.9 million bales, and 3.6 million bales.
Global mill use has surpassed production plus unaccounted for the past 4 years, contributing to the declining stocks-to-use ratio and rising market price for cotton. Global ending stocks in 2010/11 are estimated to decline 3 percent from a year ago to a 15-year low of 42.3 million bales. Ending stocks have declined each year since 2006/07.
Currently, the global stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 36.3 percent, the lowest in almost 2 decades. In addition, this year's global ending stock forecast includes a sharp increase of about 4.0 million bales in southern hemisphere stocks, resulting from higher production in Brazil and Australia. This is significant because these crops are harvested late in the season, delaying availability to the world market.
World Cotton Consumption Declines in 2010/11
Global mill use of cotton in 2010/11 is estimated at 116.6 million bales, down 2 percent from the previous year as China's demand for the fiber weakens. China, the world's largest cotton consumer, accounts for 40 percent of global cotton mill use.
In 2010/11, China's mill use is estimated at 47.0 million bales, down 6 percent (3.0 million bales) from a year ago. Pakistan's consumption is estimated to decline 6 percent from the previous year to 10.2 million bales, the third consecutive annual decline. Mill use in Brazil, India, Turkey, and the United States is estimated to increase 2 percent, 9 percent, 2 percent, and 4 percent, respectively, from the previous year reaching 4.5 million bales, 21.5 million bales, 5.9 million bales, and 3.6 million bales.
Global mill use has surpassed production plus unaccounted for the past 4 years, contributing to the declining stocks-to-use ratio and rising market price for cotton. Global ending stocks in 2010/11 are estimated to decline 3 percent from a year ago to a 15-year low of 42.3 million bales. Ending stocks have declined each year since 2006/07.
Currently, the global stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 36.3 percent, the lowest in almost 2 decades. In addition, this year's global ending stock forecast includes a sharp increase of about 4.0 million bales in southern hemisphere stocks, resulting from higher production in Brazil and Australia. This is significant because these crops are harvested late in the season, delaying availability to the world market.
U.S. Department of Agriculture
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