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World cotton ending stocks projected to be low
11
Apr '11
The World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates released by the United States Department of Agriculture, projects the world cotton ending stocks of 41.55 million bales (480 pound each) for the marketing year 2010/11. This is 780,000 bales less than the March projection. Considering the ending stocks for 2008/09 season, the world's cotton stock will end 18.97 million bales less as the ending stocks for the 2008/09 season was 60.52 million bales.

World's total cotton supply for 2010/11 season is projected to be 196.65 million bales. The total use is projected to at 155.25 million bales. The United States is projected to supply 21 million bales of which the production is pegged at 18.10 million bales. The U.S production has been lowered by 220,000 bales from the March projection. The U.S. consumption is increased by 100,000 bales from the last month estimate. Chinese domestic consumption is projected to be 47 million bales which remain unchanged from the March estimate.

According to United States Department of Agriculture, Indian mills are estimated to consume 21.5 million bales (480 lbs each). India's export during the current marketing year is projected to be 4.8 million bales. The production is projected to be 25 million bales of 480 lbs each, which remain unchanged from the March estimate. The ending stock in India for this season is projected to be 5.35 million bales which is 170,000 bales less than the March estimate.

This translates to an ending stock 6.85 million Indian bales of 170 kg each. This year, India's ending stock will be less than the estimated 2009/10 ending stock of 7.93 million bales of 170 kg each. According to the latest projection, India' beginning and ending stocks for this marketing year have been lowered since last estimates in March 2011.

Shawn Wade, Director of Communications for the Lubbock-USA based Plains Cottons Growers, Inc., commenting on the projected low U.S. ending stocks said, “It is hard to believe the US started the 2008 marketing year with beginning stocks of 10 million bales and in just three years has seen demand for US cotton shrink that figure by over 85 percent.

The journey to projected ending stock figure of 1.6 million bales began in 2008 when demand for US cotton exceeded new crop production by 4 million bales. The next year, 2009, the pattern repeated and left us with just 2.95 million bales in carryover at the beginning of the 2010 US cotton marketing year on August 1, 2010."

"This year," Wade noted, "demand for 2010-crop US cotton has again exceeded what we produced, despite a significant increase in US production levels. Looking forward it appears that cotton supplies worldwide will continue to be constricted as the world responds to the need for more cotton in 2011 and strives to meet the high demand for cotton in developing economies such as China, India, Vietnam and Bangladesh.”

Seshadri Ramkumar, Texas Tech University

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