World cotton trade expected to drop 8% in 2014-15 - ICAC

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from a record of 5.3 million tons in 2011/12 to an anticipated 2.1 million tons 2014/15. While the increased volume of trade benefited many exporting countries and farmers, it did not reflect improved demand for cotton. 

 

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from #

In 2011/12 when imports increased by 26% to 9.8 million tons, world consumption decreased by 7% to 22.8 million tons, the smallest consumption since 2003/04. While world consumption is forecast to increase by 3% to 24.2 million tons in 2014/15, it remains below the level seen in the seven years before international cotton prices spiked.

 

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from #

In 2011/12, China implemented its policy of buying domestic and imported cotton for its national reserve and consequently became a large importer of cotton. Since 2011/12, the high price of cotton in China hurt its spinning industry, but helped the spinning industry in other countries, such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam. In 2012/13, the season after China’s implementation of its new cotton policy, India’s consumption grew by 12% to 4.8 million tons and is expected to grow by 7% to 5.4 million tons in 2014/15. 

 

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from #

Similarly, Pakistan’s consumption grew by 9% to 2.4 million tons in 2012/13 and is forecast to grow by 3% to 2.6 million tons in 2014/15. Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam also experienced similar growth in 2012/13 in consumption and should continue growing in 2014/15, though at a slower rate. In contrast, China’s consumption fell by 4% in 2012/13 to 8.3 million tons and is expected to fall by 1% in 2014/15 to 7.8 million tons.

 

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from #

In 2014/15, exports from Greece and the CFA zone are forecast to rise by 6% and 3%, respectively. However, exports from other large producing countries are expected to decrease in 2014/15. The United States’ exports are expected to decrease by 1% to 2.6 million tons while Australia’s exports are expected to decrease by 23% to about 800,000 tons. Additionally, India, the second largest exporter, could see a decrease of 21% to 1.1 million tons in 2014/15 as more of its cotton is consumed domestically. 

 

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from #

World ending stocks are forecast to increase by 12% in 2013/14 to 20 million tons, and then to expand by another 5% in 2014/15 to 20.1 million tons. Additionally, ending stocks outside of China are expected to increase by 7% to 9.1 million tons in 2014/15 as China will be importing less of the surplus production than in the last 2 seasons. The projected accumulation of cotton stocks will weigh on international cotton prices in 2014/15, particularly as more stocks will be held outside of China.

 

The volume of cotton traded internationally is expected to decline by 8% to 8.1 million tons in 2014/15, driven by reduced shipments to China from #