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Cotlook projects smaller drawdown in global stocks
23 Mar '07
1 min read
The recent slow pace of imports into China and continuing doubts over statistics emerging from that country have prompted Cotlook to reassess its supply and demand projections for the 2006/07 marketing year (August/July).
We have reduced our consumption figure for the running season by 250,000 tonnes and our import forecast by a commensurate amount. We continue to foresee growth in Chinese mill use next season of around five percent.
Expectations in China of a larger increase in planted area for 2007/08 than first indicated have influenced our higher production projection.
The above-mentioned changes imply that China will have a lessened impact on the world supply and demand balance sheet between August 1, 2006, and July 31, 2008, and that the drawdown in global stocks during that period will not be quite as large as our initial forecasts suggested.
We have reduced our consumption figure for the running season by 250,000 tonnes and our import forecast by a commensurate amount. We continue to foresee growth in Chinese mill use next season of around five percent.
Expectations in China of a larger increase in planted area for 2007/08 than first indicated have influenced our higher production projection.
The above-mentioned changes imply that China will have a lessened impact on the world supply and demand balance sheet between August 1, 2006, and July 31, 2008, and that the drawdown in global stocks during that period will not be quite as large as our initial forecasts suggested.
Cotlook Limited, UK
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