Shorn wool production to fall by 1.6% in 2020/21: AWPFC

Relatively widespread rain has been welcomed through south eastern Australia and along the eastern seaboard in the first quarter of 2020. Western Australia remains dry with on-farm water supplies at low levels and a sharp increase in the number of interstate sheep transfers.

“Strong returns for mutton and lamb along with high sheep replacement costs and uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on global demand for wool and on wool prices may slow recovery in wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook,” Committee chairman, Russell Pattinson said.

AWPFC has updated its fourth forecast of shorn wool production for the 2019/20 season to 281 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, decline on the 300 mkg estimate for 2018/19 as low sheep numbers and the enduring impact of drought continue to constrain production.

The number of sheep shorn in Australia during 2019/20 is forecast to fall by 5.7 per cent to 68.4 million. Sheep shorn numbers are expected to remain at 2018/19 levels in South Australia and Tasmania, but decline in all other states with Queensland (down 13.6 per cent), New South Wales (down 9.7 per cent), Victoria (down 6.6 per cent ) and Western Australia (down 2.1 per cent).

The average wool cut per head is forecast to decline by 0.5 per cent nationally to 4.11 kg greasy for the 2019/20 season. In Queensland, shorn wool production is forecast to fall by 12.3 per cent, South Australia down 9.0 per cent, New South Wales down 6.8 per cent, Tasmania down 6.7 per cent, and Victoria down 5.4 per cent and Western Australia down 3.5 per cent.

AWTA wool test volumes to the end of March 2020 were down by 5.5 per cent year-on-year while first-hand offered wool at auction to the end of week 42 was down 17.9 per cent. The decline in the latter is partly due to the recent downward movement in wool prices with smaller auction offerings and high pre-sale withdrawal evident in recent months. ABS wool receivables from July to the end of December were down 13.2 per cent compared with the same months in 2018/19.

The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, sheep pregnancy scanners, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture and from the Australian Wool Testing Authority.  Data and input were also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, and Meat and Livestock Australia.

The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2020.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (PC)