First half of 2010, the International Naphtha market overview:
In January, the trend of international crude oil spikes fall, with the domestic oil market hot and stimulating domestic demand. Naphtha, purchase and sale were also significant.New Year's Day, after international oil prices witnessed a shocking 10 % increase with Yang". The domestic naphtha market was affected by this boost, in a depressed state improved.
Shandong to refining naphtha market rebound, pushing two-day price, but out of concerns about weak demand, refinery bid carefully, and price increases were small. Market turnover improved, due to the weather cooling unit to increase its own oil, naphtha demand is relatively larger, and lower with the shipping relatively smooth. As the cold weather is expected to increase, crude oil future prices continued to rise to 83.18 U.S. dollars in New York, reaching the highest price since October 9, 2008. Affected by the price increase, prices of downstream petrochemical products were significantly higher, and naphtha prices were up.
Due to refining of the naphtha market in the external lead in Shandong, there was a marked improvement in the shipping conditions, because the regions oil is more private, which expanded the demand for naphtha. At the end, the international oil prices were down, obviously with an impact on the domestic market. Shandong in refining gasoline and diesel prices are going down, their own businesses with oil stocks higher, into the purchase scarce, naphtha prices fell slightly.Refinery unit operation was loaded down and inventory was less stressful, but due to shrinking downstream demand, the actual transaction was scarce.
In February, as international crude oil was all the way down, plus the Lunar New Year approaching, refining operations were down, and domestic purchase and sale of naphtha market slowed, with prices, way down. Early light naphtha market transactions were subject to pre-impact gasoline prices, oil, and naphtha.Sharp ups and downs of international crude oil had an impact on domestic naphtha prices which continued to decline, mostly downstream users watching the operation carefully, together with the advent of Spring Festival, with oil stocks higher early manufacturers. There was no purchase of naphtha as raw material in the chemical plants, and there were more holiday shutdowns, and reduced demand.After the Spring Festival, the domestic market, rose slightly for naphtha, with the majority of catalytic cracking naphtha as raw material for chemical plant started late, resulting in slower recovery after the holiday demand, but by the impact of soaring international crude oil, gasoline prices have been gains across the board, the late rise 350 yuan / ton, this stimulated, to refining naphtha prices rising slowly.
In March, while the international oil market fundamentals were still weak, there was better global economic recovery. International oil price fluctuations were seen around the USD 80 mark up, thus driving the price up in Shandong to refining naphtha.This month, Chinese New Year atmosphere dissipated, with naphtha as raw materials, ethylene, propylene, benzene and other chemical basic of work, while gasoline prices remained high, with oil companies buying into the enthusiasm, as downstream demand recovery faster, to refining naphtha prices rose this week, a significant reduction.In addition, the international crude oil at 80 U.S. dollars were moderate, with fluctuations in the market to play naphtha burning all support.Mid-market, the domestic gasoline market pushed up by soaring crude oil; with oil companies increased the amount of naphtha, to promote the naphtha prices.
In addition, during March there was a downtime of more normal production of the refinery output except for some personal use. A small amount was for sale, and the market was very tight of the resources. This is also an important factor for pushing prices up.Naphtha refining market in Shandong is likely to resource constraints, with more refinery stocks sold, and the prices hanging.At the end of the market, price adjustment is expected to continue to strengthen the policy; the oil market continued to remain stable and closed up.
With gasoline prices continuing inched up, by the corresponding reduction in naphtha refinery production, there was a market supply reduction, combined with the local concentration of refinery maintenance. This caused reduction in market supply, while high prices have curbed adhering to the lower purchase enthusiasm, market transactions slowed.
In April, the international crude oil prices were high, the fundamentals of strong demand by the oil price increases and double positive support, naphtha market conditions continued to improve.Early due to lack of capacity utilization of domestic equipment, inventory resources, step by step pre-digestion, the overall supply tight.The end-user demand is still higher than for naphtha Wang, and local refineries are likely to increase their own use, outside the basic stop, so listing is also gradually increases, the existing small amount of the overall transaction is relatively small.
The highest domestic retail gasoline and diesel oil limit rose to 320 yuan / ton, self-adjustment according to the situation. Prices increased along with high tension as the market once the situation of resources and downstream demand is gradually improving the user into purchasing active market in a short supply situation.Late events by Goldman Sachs, the international crude oil price uncertainties, the market once again filled with an atmosphere to wait and see. Due to the approaching holiday, gasoline demand has increased dramatically.Most of the Shandong refining naphtha have been refining their own use, and the atmospheric and vacuum distillation capacity utilization was not high, the market resource constraints, many refineries to raise prices, control of volume sales, mostly in triplicate situation refinery ship.
During May, prices of international crude oil had negative effects. Domestic oil products market experienced price fluctuations, but naphtha prices were adjusted to reconcile some aspects of shipping poor performance refinery.
The beginning of the domestic market saw price of naphtha in the oil market stimulated, with price gains across the way. Shandong refined the naphtha market due to resource shortage, and prices were up. Although the demand for higher prices have not been able to keep up the pace, the international crude oil prices shot up, with changes of 4% rate of price adjustment. The market was optimistic.The domestic oil market saw poor oil trading, forcing the market into a deadlock.Stock brokers were still digesting the short term; and the purchase intention was not strong.There is an alarming decline in international crude oil prices.
Shandong would be shipping slowly, hanging high price of stability, a sound market watching.At the end of the depth of decline in international crude oil, a severe blow to the confidence of industry operations, crude oil fell below 70 dollars, the market waiting to see a strong atmosphere.Although some end-users make up an active database to the market for some support, the poor environment, the supply unit price will not quite. The international crude oil prices had collapsed with the impact of domestic oil products market in low spirits. There was lack of confidence in the market outlook, and the industry was put to take hold. Domestic gasoline prices have come down with oil manufacturers cautious view of city procurement reduced naphtha to reconcile with the lack of demand, market prices have been falling, and the actual transaction has significant benefits.
In June, watching the domestic naphtha market sentiment unabated, the market volume remained in doldrums, with the domestic refined oil prices slightly lower, and demand for naphtha hardly turned around. Waiting in the terminal case, oil inventories increased the refinery price of naphtha, to maintain stability. The local oil refinery operation and the next stable dark or clear, the majority of refineries offered stability. Naphtha market demand remains weak, with the factory shipments blocked again and again due to a lower market turnover.
International crude oil price moved slightly forward, the domestic oil product market affected by the external disk market downturn. There was no obvious rebound of domestic demand for gasoline, used oil, naphtha demand. Therefore there was a decline, while solvent oil market continued to decline, though the cleavage using naphtha demand is stable, but still can not give strong support to naphtha prices. In the long-term, stable and declining trend of domestic naphtha prices do not change.At the end, the international crude oil has always been difficult for the 80 U.S. dollars / barrel, slightly Asian naphtha prices steady, still close to three-week lows.Shandong continued flat market situation, the market is still waiting to see the atmosphere unabated naphtha, refinery prices remained stable, price fluctuations of individual refineries and have different levels of benefits, but still no improvement in the actual transaction.
Prediction of the market outlook:
International crude oil prices fell below 80 U.S. dollars. Since May, there has been no recovery in domestic oil market due to recession, followed by naphtha market which has been the trend of crude oil, domestic refinery naphtha basic personal use, export prices of hanging, marketing tepid.And in July, there will be the U.S. gasoline demand season, coupled with seasonal reasons - the Atlantic hurricane activity, the international oil prices or the growth in demand and tight supply pushed up the impact, or the resulting domestic price of naphtha was up. On the other side, with the summer rate of domestic conditions, car companies started upgrading their air conditioning oil, domestic diesel demand was still prominent, and reconciling naphtha market outlook is more optimistic.In addition, the first half of the domestic production of naphtha continued to grow year on year, indicating that market demand for naphtha, gradually improving. There are optimistic estimates. The second half of the domestic naphtha market as a whole will be better than the first half, with the prices stable and up.