Modal Analysis Pakistan: Viscose Value Chain Market Trends, Prices & Forecast

Modal, 1.4D, FOB - Pakistan (01 May 2024 - 30 Apr 2025)

Overall Trend

• The prices of Modal (1.4D) have been in a decreasing trend from May 2024 to April 2025 in Asia (FOB Pakistan). This trend reflects a significant percentage change of -20.67%, indicating a challenging market environment for suppliers and manufacturers.

Price Trend

• The prices of Modal (1.4D) have decreased by 20.67% from May 2024 to April 2025 in Asia (FOB Pakistan). This decline is indicative of a broader market adjustment, possibly influenced by oversupply or reduced demand in the textile sector.
• The average month-on-month percentage change has been -2.06%, suggesting a consistent downward pressure on prices throughout the year. This trend may compel manufacturers to reassess their pricing strategies and cost structures.
• The highest percentage increase of 1.22% was reported in July 2024, while the highest percentage decrease of -7.65% occurred in September 2024. These fluctuations highlight the volatility within the market, where seasonal demand could have played a role in price adjustments.
• The average price for Modal (1.4D) in 2024 was 3.11 USD/kg, which has decreased to 2.69 USD/kg in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of -13.69% from 2024 to 2025. This decline underscores the need for market participants to adapt to changing economic conditions and consumer preferences.

Price Range

• The average price from May 2024 to April 2025 for Asia (FOB Pakistan) was 2.97 USD/kg, indicating that the prices have fluctuated around this average. The range between average and minimum price is 0.36 USD/kg, and that of between maximum and average price is 0.35 USD/kg, indicating a relatively tight range around the average price. The minimum price recorded was 2.61 USD/kg, while the maximum price reached 3.32 USD/kg, resulting in a price range of 0.71 USD/kg.
• The average price from May 2024 to April 2025 indicates that prices have been under pressure, with the maximum price being significantly higher than the average, suggesting potential spikes in demand or supply constraints at certain times.

Volatility

• The standard deviation in prices for Modal (1.4D) was 0.25 USD/kg, indicating low volatility in the market. This stability may provide a sense of predictability for buyers and sellers alike, although the overall downward trend in prices suggests caution.
• The prices for Modal (1.4D) traded at a moving average premium of 1.07% and at a moving average discount of 8.46% from the moving average price during the same period. This indicates that while there are moments of higher pricing, the general trend has been towards discounts, reflecting the competitive pressures in the market.

In summary, the Modal (1.4D) market in Asia (FOB Pakistan) is currently facing significant challenges, with a clear downward trend in prices and a need for stakeholders to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.