Conference Board LEI for US declines by 0.2% in December

“The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board. “Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index’s financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December."

“However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December. Labour market data also weighed on the Index, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1 per cent y-o-y in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2 per cent in 2025,” explained Zabinska-La Monica.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.2 per cent in December 2025 to 115.0 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised increase of 0.1 per cent in November. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.3 per cent over the second half of 2025, slightly down from its 0.4 per cent increase over the first half of last year. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Nearly all improved in December, but personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales were estimated for the month, The Conference Board said in a press release.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US inched down by 0.1 per cent to 119.6 (2016=100) in December 2025, reversing a 0.1 per cent increase in November. The LAG was unchanged in H2 2025, significantly down from the 1.2 per cent increase over the previous six months (H1 2025).

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)