India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines to lead Asian trade surge: DHL

Meanwhile, Asia’s trade outlook remains positive, mirroring global trade, which is forecast to grow faster over the next five years compared to the preceding decade, as per the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report released by DHL in collaboration with the New York University Stern School of Business.

Over the next five years, India is projected to maintain its third-place position in scale while climbing 15 spots to 17^th in speed, with its compound annual trade volume growth rate increasing from 5.2 per cent to 7.2 per cent. Additionally, India may also deliver 6 per cent of the world’s trade growth, behind China (12 per cent) and the United States (10 per cent), DHL said in a press release.

Vietnam is expected to maintain a 6.5 per cent compound annual trade volume growth rate over the 2024-2029 period and promote one position to rank fifth on the scale dimension.

Similarly, Indonesia is predicted to retain its 12^th place on the scale rankings, while rising from 33^rd to 25^th in the speed rankings. More notably, the Philippines is set to leap 114 positions to rank 15^th on the speed dimension and rise from 68^th to 30^th on the scale dimension.

South Asia and the ASEAN regions are forecast to deliver the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029 with Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.6 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively. In fact, trade growth is also expected to accelerate substantially compared to the previous five-year period in these regions. Other regions such as North America and Europe are forecast to grow at rates of 2.7 per cent.

The DHL Trade Atlas highlighted a shift in the centre of global trade. Since 2000, the trade shares of major geographic regions have evolved, with the most notable change seen in Asia. Between 2000 and 2024, South and Central Asia’s share of global trade increased from 2 per cent to 5 per cent, while Europe’s share declined from 41 per cent to 36 per cent.

Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to customers, the report demonstrates that trade has not become more regionalised overall. Actual trade flows indicate the opposite trend.

In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometres, compared to just over 4,500 kilometres in 2000. This development can be attributed to the fact that Europe and North America have increasingly traded with Asia, as ‘Factory Asia’ becomes central to global production networks, the release added.

“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Steven A Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern’s Centre for the Future of Management. “While the US could pull back from trade—at a significant cost—other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”

“As we look towards the future of trade in Asia, it's clear how trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” said Ken Lee, chief executive officer (CEO)—Asia Pacific, DHL Express. “However, we must approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognizing the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterise the global business environment. As businesses diversify supply chains, it is essential they stay innovative in their strategy and proactive in seeking out new routes to growth.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)