US retail imports expected at record high

13 Jun '17

3 min read

The rate of import growth at the US’ major retail container ports has begun to slow after double-digit surges earlier in 2017 but volume should nonetheless hit an all-time high by the end of summer with some of the largest import volumes expected, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Year-over-year comparisons are slowing down but that’s largely because we had some unusual numbers early this year and strong volume in the second half of last year. Despite that, we’re expecting some of the largest import volumes we’ve ever seen, and that’s because retailers are responding to strong consumer demand,” NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.61 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in April, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 4.8 per cent from March and up 11.3 per cent from April 2016. One TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.

May was estimated at 1.69 million TEU, up 3.9 per cent from the same time last year. June is forecast at 1.64 million TEU, up 4.1 per cent from last year; July at 1.68 million TEU, up 3.5 per cent; August at 1.74 million TEU, up 1.6 per cent; September at 1.64 million TEU, up 2.8 per cent, and October at 1.69 million TEU, up 1.3 per cent.

The August figure would be the highest monthly volume recorded since NRF began tracking imports in 2000, topping the 1.73 million TEU seen in March 2015. The May and October numbers would be among the five highest ever recorded.

April’s 11.34 per cent year-over-year figure and a 15.8 per cent year-over-year increase in March were unusually high anomalies because of where Lunar New Year fell on the calendar and affected production at factories in Asia.

The first half of 2017 is expected to total 9.6 million TEU, up 6.4 per cent from the first half of 2016. Cargo volume for 2016 totaled 18.8 million TEU, up 3.1 per cent from 2015, which had grown 5.4 per cent from 2014.

NRF has forecast that 2017 retail sales - excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants - will increase between 3.7 and 4.2 per cent over 2016, driven by job and income growth coupled with low debt. Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales because only the number of containers is counted, not the value of the cargo inside, but nonetheless provides a barometer of retailers’ expectations.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the falling rate of growth in imports has been reflected in lower industrial output growth at factories in China, which increased 6.5 per cent in April compared with 7.6 per cent in March and is expected to drop further when May numbers are released.

“We can assume that part of the reason for the lower-than-expected increase was due to continuing slow growth in the Western Hemisphere. Retail sales continue to hold up but nothing coming out of Washington suggests an impetus to growth,” Hackett said. (SV)

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