LEI for China down by 0.1% in December: The Conference Board

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China declined by 0.7 per cent in December 2025 to 154.1 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.9 per cent in November. The CEI contracted by 0.6 per cent in the second half of 2025, in contrast to the growth (1.8 per cent) observed in the first half, the Conference Board said in a press release.

The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.

“The China LEI declined on a month-on-month and six-month basis in December, continuing its downward trend,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate, at The Conference Board. “Consumer confidence continued to be the primary drag on the index, while the logistics prosperity index also recorded a notable negative contribution. Meanwhile, growth in imports and transportation equipment and building construction bolstered the index, but not enough to offset widespread weakness in all remaining components.”

“With the negative semi- and annual-growth rates of the LEI pointing to headwinds and the 6-month diffusion index remaining below 50, the recession signal was triggered again in December,” continued Brennan. “The demand-side of the economy remains soft, due to slowing growth of both retail sales and fixed asset investment. Meanwhile, exports continue to underpin overall growth, supported by strong shipments to the EU and emerging markets. Taking into account downward pressures, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.5 per cent in 2026.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)