US real GDP up at 4.4% annual rate in Q3 2025: BEA updated estimate

23 Jan '26
2 min read
US real GDP up at 4.4% annual rate in Q3 2025: BEA updated estimate
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Insights

  • US real GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.4 per cent in Q3 2025, according to the updated estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • The rise reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending and investment.
  • In Q2 2025, real GDP increased by 3.8 per cent.
  • The Q3 2025 rise in real GDP reflected an increase of 3.6 per cent for private goods-producing industries.
US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) last year, according to the updated estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The rise reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending and investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased less in Q3 2025 than in Q2.

In Q2 2025, real GDP increased by 3.8 per cent.

Real GDP was revised up by 0.1 percentage point (pp) from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up.

Due to the recent government shutdown, the updated report for Q3 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, i.e., the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased by 2.9 per cent in Q3 2025, revised down by 0.1 pp from the previous estimate.

From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in Q3 2025 reflected an increase of 3.6 per cent for private goods-producing industries, a BEA release said.

Real gross output increased by 3.2 per cent in the Q3 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.1 per cent for government that was partly offset by a decrease of 0.1 per cent for private goods-producing industries.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.4 per cent in Q3 2025, the same as previously estimated.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.8 per cent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased by 2.9 per cent, both the same as previously estimated.

US real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 2.4 per cent in Q3 2025, the same as previously estimated. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 3.4 per cent.

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