Indian GDP to grow at 7.6 per cent this fiscal: NCAER

November 10, 2016 - India

The gross domestic product (GDP) of India for the fiscal 2016-17 is expected to grow at the rate of 7.6 per cent, says a recent report. Improvements in the manufacturing sector with the Purchasers’ Managers Index and Index of Industrial Production for core sectors going up and an improved agriculture sector could give an upward push to economic growth.

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) released its 2016-17 Mid-Year Review of the Indian economy (MYR) that presents a comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy before the FY 2017-18 Union budget.

Indian exports saw a growth of 4.6 per cent in September after declining in July and August. The country’s merchandise exports turned positive in June 2016, with exports rising at 1.27 per cent year on year in June to $22.57 billion, reversing the trend that started in December 2014 due to weak global demand and a fall in commodity prices, says the report.

Regarding the monetary policy of India, the report says, “After the cautious approach adopted by the previous governor, the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points. Furthermore, governor Urjit Patel, in his post-policy briefing, hinted that the inflation target of 4 per cent would be achieved over five years. The PSU banks continued to be plagued by NPAs and the credit and deposit growth remained sluggish.”

India’s fiscal position remained under stress during H1of FY17. Despite healthy growth in tax revenues, the combination of rising expenditure and lower-than-expected non-tax revenues is likely to test the government’s resolve to abide by the fiscal deficit target set out in budget 2016-17, according to the report.

The NCAER report states that after a sequential uptick in inflation in the initial months of FY17 to 6.07 per cent in July 2016, it fell sharply in September 2016 to 4.31 per cent, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). After declining for 17 consecutive months, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation turned positive in April 2016, remaining at around 3.5-3.7 per cent. (KD)