Cotton likely to fall in trading next week

April 19, 2008 - United States Of America

The dollar was strong and the commodities markets were generally weak Friday. Crude oil slipped to the low of $112.72 as dollar strengthened by more than 700 points. While the dollar euro rate is rising on short term technical correction, the economic situation has not changed much.

This could put pressure on dollar’s further gains. Overnight ICE opened around 50 points higher, but steadily traded lower influenced by the outside weaknesses.

The sharp drop in prices came at 9:00am NY time, when traders arrived at offices and started their day off with some profit taking selling. NYF thus touched the session low and found support at 70.21 basis K’08 and 73.67 basis N’08.

With the turnaround in crude, which made another record high at above $116, cotton received some strength and started intraday rally in light volume. At end of the session, K’08 settled at 70.88, 87 points lower and N’08 settled at 74.60, 68 points lower.

The commitment of traders report published by CFTC on Friday shows that as of Tuesday April 15th, for the net futures positions (chart on page 2 in attached PDF), the commercials had increased their long positions by 2,200 contracts and their short positions by 8,400 contracts from the week before.

The non commercials had increased their longs by 1,200, but reduced their shorts by 5,300 contracts. Commercials were holding 59.7% of the long positions and 76.1% of the short positions, while non commercials were holding 23.6% of the longs.

As the total open interest dropped less than 5,000 contracts throughout the week, both trades and funds had been orderly liquidating their positions in May, and trades had increased their overall net short positions by 2.5%.

More profit taking selling came in today after the false technical breakout Wednesday and follow through selling yesterday. Supported by the overall weaknesses in commodities, NYF formed another negative candlestick in the technical picture.

The entire session was trading beneath both the short term and long term moving averages and the RSI is at 42%. We’ll very likely trade in consolidation ahead of the K’08 first notice day, which falls on Thursday the 24th. Cotton will likely fall in quiet trading next week and between 70 and 72 cents will be a likely range to carry May into notice period.

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