USDA WASDE signals softer cotton outlook, lower consumption

11 Feb '26
2 min read
USDA WASDE signals softer cotton outlook, lower consumption
Pic: Shutterstock.com

Insights

  • USDA's February 2026 WASDE report signals a softer global cotton outlook, raising 2025–26 production by 425,000 bales to 119.86 million bales while trimming consumption and exports.
  • Global ending stocks are projected to rise to 75.11 million bales, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 63 per cent.
  • US exports are lowered on weak sales, and the season-average upland price is cut to 60 cents per pound.
Indicating a softer global cotton market outlook, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised world cotton production and ending stocks while reducing consumption and exports. The estimate for 2025–26 global production is increased by 425,000 bales to 119.86 million bales of 480 pounds (217.7 kg), according to WASDE’s February 2026 report.

World cotton production is raised from the January 2026 report following increases for China and South Africa, partially offset by reductions for Argentina and Mexico.

Global consumption is lowered by 200,000 bales from 118.92 million bales to 118.72 million bales in the latest report. The lower consumption projection reflects a 100,000-bale reduction for Pakistan and small reductions elsewhere.

The estimate for world exports is reduced by 60,000 bales to 43.71 million bales, as changes in US and Australian exports exactly offset each other, with small adjustments for several other countries. Back-year revisions for Mali, Afghanistan and Mexico result in a negligible decline in 2025–26 beginning stocks. With these changes, global ending stocks for 2025–26 increase by nearly 630,000 bales to 75.11 million bales, resulting in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 63 per cent.

Changes to the 2025–26 US cotton balance sheet are minimal this month, with the export projection reduced by 200,000 bales due to lagging sales and ending stocks raised by the same amount, bringing the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 32 per cent. Production, beginning stocks and mill use remain unchanged. The projected 2025–26 season-average upland farm price is lowered by 1 cent to 60 cents per pound.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)

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