Expectations were stable in the years leading into the pandemic; they worsened till mid-2022 and softened thereafter till October 2024.
This month’s reading is well below peaks in monthly readings from June 2022 and April 2025, but above 2024 readings as well as readings from 2020 and earlier. Expectations exhibit substantial uncertainty, though less than in mid-2025, the university said in a release.
In 2025, median expectations surged to 4.4 in April, before trending downward for most of the remainder of the year. This month, the median is 3.3, comparable to 2023 readings and higher than the pre-pandemic period.
Similarly, mean expectations have broadly decreased from April 2025 peaks. The mean ticked up in January and remains above 2024 and pre-pandemic readings.
The interquartile range, a measure of inflation uncertainty, increased this month. It is currently below mid-2022 and mid-2025 heights but is well above January 2025.
These ranges remain elevated relative to 2024 and the figures before the COVID-19 pandemic.
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