Companies optimistic about growth: McKinsey global survey

27 Dec '17

3 min read

Respondents to McKinsey’s latest global survey on economic conditions are optimistic about growth improving worldwide and in their own countries and are confident about their companies’ prospects. Majority of respondents said trade will rise between their own countries and the rest of the world. Expectations for companies’ growth and demand have also soared.

Among possible risks, overinflated asset prices are an increasingly worrisome threat to global growth, while in respondents’ home countries, concern about heightened equity prices is on the rise, said a McKinsey press release citing the survey.

Respondents in developed Asia are the cheeriest about the state of the global economy — and much more so than they were in the previous survey.

Fifty-one per cent of respondents expect global conditions will improve in the next six months, compared with 42 per cent in the previous survey and 28 per cent who said so a year ago. When asked for the first time about the global economy’s growth rate, an even larger share— 72 per cent — expect it will increase over the next six months. By contrast, only 14 percent predict the global growth rate will contract.

Fifty one per cent expect trade levels will increase in 2018 — up from 32 per cent a year ago. Respondents in emerging economies are more optimistic about their countries’ trade prospects than their developed-economy peers.

However, concerns about asset bubbles have continued their rise. Thirty one per cent of respondents identified asset bubbles as a risk to global growth in the next year, continuing that risk’s steady climb up the list since last December, when only 8 percent of respondents cited it.

Fifty seven per cent of respondents said conditions at home improved in the past six months, and 49 per cent predicted conditions will improve in the next six months. An even higher share, 65 per cent, predict that the growth rates of their home economies will increase in the next six months. Those in India are the most optimistic.

Compared with the previous survey, respondents focused on the same risks to domestic growth but in a slightly different order of likelihood. At the top was domestic political conflicts, followed by transitions of political leadership and asset bubbles.

Concern about equity bubbles is most acute in India and in North America. Fifty-two percent and 48 percent in these regions, respectively, cite equity bubbles, compared with 27 percent of all respondents.

Sixty one per cent of private-sector respondents said they expect an increase in demand in the next six months and 67 per cent expect their companies’ profits will rise. (DS)

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