Container port congestion stagnates Sept trade: Kiel Trade Indicator

Overall EU exports are not expected to rise from the -0.1 per cent value recorded in August. For the United States, the indicator shows slightly negative signs, with exports down by 0.5 per cent and imports 0.7 per cent lower, the institute said in a release.

"The terminal closures in China are leaving their mark and dampening the exchange of goods,” said Vincent Stamer, head of Kiel Trade Indicator.

“There are no signs of a sustained easing of the situation, which clouds the outlook for international trade. This is likely to be felt via rising prices and continuing shortages of certain goods, including in the Christmas trade," he said.

Congestion off Ningbo-Zhoushan and Los Angeles currently ties up about 3 per cent of global trade volumes in each of their main trade lanes.

Cargo volumes in the Red Sea—the main sea trade route between China and Europe—are 14 per cent lower than would be expected under normal circumstances.

"Christmas is not cancelled, but especially for products from China and Asia, missing deliveries or higher prices are to be expected," Stamer said.

However, despite congestions issues, China seems to have found a way to overcome the closures of its terminals at the ports of Ningbo-Zhoushan and Yantian. Despite bottlenecks off the Chinese coast, more goods were shipped from these ports and Shenzhen in the past four weeks than in the four weeks before that.

For China's exports in September, the Kiel Trade Indicator signals an increase of 6.2 per cent and for imports an indicator value of 0.8 per cent.

The Kiel Trade Indicator estimates and analyses trade flows in terms of imports and exports for 75 countries.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)