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Global factory output & employment plunge in Dec 2023

04 Jan '24
2 min read
Pic: Adobe Stock
Pic: Adobe Stock

Insights

  • Global manufacturing ended the year 2023 on a decline, with the J P Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 49.0, indicating contraction.
  • Production fell across most countries, with notable exceptions including China and Mexico.
  • Continuous drops in new orders led to defensive strategies and job cuts, while slight inflationary pressures increased.
The global manufacturing sector concluded 2023 with declining production and employment rates, marking a troubling end to the year. The J P Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI indicated a contraction with a December reading of 49.0, further declining from 49.3 in November. This marks the sixteenth month below the neutral threshold of 50.0.

Production has been diminishing, particularly in the intermediate goods sector, while consumer and investment goods sectors showed some resilience. The downturn was widespread with output contractions noted in all but seven of the 29 surveyed countries, including major economies like the United States and members of the euro area. Only China, Colombia, Greece, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Russia showed signs of growth, S&P Global said in a news release.

December also marked the eighteenth consecutive month of declining new business intakes, affecting consumer, intermediate, and investment goods industries. This consistent decrease in demand has led to manufacturers taking a defensive stance, evident from continued cutbacks in employment, purchasing activity, and stock holdings.

Job losses were particularly noted in China, the euro area, the US, and the UK, while Japan maintained stable staffing levels. Input buying volumes were reduced significantly, contributing to lower inventory levels and improved supplier delivery times.

Despite the overall downturn, price inflation pressures increased slightly in December, with both input costs and output charges rising, although at mild rates. This suggests a complex landscape for the global manufacturing sector moving forward, with challenges in demand, production, and pricing.

Maia Crook, global economist at J P Morgan, said: “The global manufacturing output PMI slipped 0.4-point in December, and ends 2023 in modest contraction territory. Last month’s decline was broadly based across economies. Output slipped in Europe after a promising rise in November, and the US took a step downwards. Global new orders and employment also ticked down last month, falling 0.4-point and 0.5-point respectively. Future output was one of the few bright spots in the report, alongside a modest firming in indicators of pricing and delivery times.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)

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