Global growth projected to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023: IMF

02 Feb '23

1 min read

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Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent this year, and then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) World Economic Outlook (WEO). The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 WEO, but below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.8 per cent.

Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8 per cent in 2022 to 6.6 per cent this year and 4.3 per cent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic (2017-2019) levels of about 3.5 per cent, the IMF said.

The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, but adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 WEO. On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies, or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.

On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate and tighter global financing costs could worsen debt distress. Financial markets could also suddenly reprice in response to adverse inflation news, while further geopolitical fragmentation could hamper economic progress, the IMF document added.

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