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IMF expects Turkiye's 2026 GDP growth at 4.2%

17 Feb '26

1 min read

IMF expects Turkiye's 2026 GDP growth at 4.2%

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Tight monetary policy, moderate wage growth and broadly neutral fiscal policy are expected to back gradual disinflation in Turkiye, with end-2026 inflation likely at 23 per cent YoY, the IMF, which has completed its Article IV Consultation with the country, said.
Domestic demand remains strong, and boosted by further policy rate cuts and rising confidence, growth is expected at 4.2 per cent for 2026.

Tight monetary policy, moderate wage growth and broadly neutral fiscal policy are expected to support gradual disinflation in Turkiye, with end-2026 inflation expected at 23 per cent year on year (YoY), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently completed its Article IV Consultation with the country.

“The current policy mix continues to balance disinflation with steady growth,” the IMF said in a release.

Domestic demand remains strong, and boosted by further policy rate cuts and rising confidence, growth is expected at 4.2 per cent for 2026. Growth was projected at 4.1 per cent in 2025.

Inflation fell from 49.4 per cent YoY in September 2024 to 30.9 per cent in December 2025 on the back of strong fiscal consolidation, prudent income policies and a tight monetary policy stance.

Lira demand has strengthened, bolstering international reserves, and the current account deficit remains adequately financed, the IMF noted.

External risks remain elevated due to persistent global trade uncertainty and regional conflicts.

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