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India rating by Fitch unchanged for 12th yr in succession

Nov '18
India rating by Fitch unchanged for 12th yr in succession
Fitch Ratings recently retained its sovereign credit rating for India at BBB-, the lowest investment grade with a stable outlook, for the 12th year in succession, noting a weak fiscal position and significant risks to the country’s macroeconomic outlook. Fitch had last upgraded India’s rating from BB+ to BBB- with a stable outlook on August 1, 2006.

New Delhi has been reportedly making a strong pitch to Fitch for an upgrade after rival Moody’s Investors Service in November 2017 gave the country its first sovereign rating upgrade since 2004.

The rating balances a strong medium-term growth outlook and favourable external balances relative to peers with weak fiscal finances, a fragile financial sector and some lagging structural factors, a news agency reported quoting the company.

Risks to the macroeconomic outlook are significant, and include a drop in credit growth, resulting from further problems in the banking or shadow-banking sector, it said.

Government debt at close to 70 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), a difficulty to meet deficit target of 3.3 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal due to lower revenues including from goods and services tax in the first half, and expenditures being difficult to control in the run-up to general elections are main reasons for the weak fiscal position, said the rating agency.

While a reduction in general government debt over the medium term and higher sustained investment and growth rates without the creation of macro imbalances could trigger a ‘positive rating action’, a rise in debt burden of the sovereign and loose macroeconomic policy settings that cause a return of persistently high inflation and widening current-account deficits could trigger the opposite rating action, it added. (DS)

Fibre2Fashion News Desk – India

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January 2022

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