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Global cotton mill use to fall - USDA

15
Dec '11
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2011/12 indicate that world cotton consumption is now expected to decrease 2.5 percent from last season as the global economy remains sluggish. This season's expected decline follows a 4-percent reduction last season as cotton prices reached unprecedented levels and has forced fiber substitution at some mills.

At 111.3 million bales, 2011/12 global cotton mill use is 10 percent below the peak established in 2006/07. China and India, the world's largest spinners, are leading the decline in global mill use in 2011/12. However, with mill use expected to rise in Pakistan this season, the combined share of world mill use for the three countries remains similar to last season's 67 percent and is above the 65-percent share achieved in 2006/07. China continues to dominate cotton spinning, accounting for at least 40 percent of the total since 2006/07.

World 2011/12 Production Forecast at a Record High
Global 2011/12 cotton production is forecast at 123.4 million bales, up 7 percent from a year ago. Although the expected global crop has been revised downward from the previous month's forecast due to weakening prices, it remains a record forecast production.

Several major producers anticipate a bumper harvest. The major southern hemisphere producers, Australia and Brazil, are forecast to produce 5.0 million bales and 9.0 million bales in 2011/12, respectively. While the 2011/12 forecast leaves Brazil's crop unchanged from the previous year, it represents a 19-percent increase in Australia. Australia's 2011/12 harvested area is expected to increase 2 percent to 600,000 hectares, up 2 percent from a year ago, while yields are expected to grow 17 percent to 1,814 kg/ha, as more area is likely to be irrigated.

China, the world's leading cotton producer, is expected to grow 33.5 million bales in 2011/12, up 10 percent from the previous year and accounting for 27 percent of global production. China's forecast 2011/12 production rebound is driven mostly by anticipated harvested area, which is forecast to increase 7 percent to 5.5 million hectares in 2011/12.

India and Pakistan are expected to produce 27.5 million bales and 10.0 million bales in 2011/12, an increase of 8 percent and 14 percent, respectively, from the preceding year. Harvested area in India and Pakistan is expected to rise 10 percent to 12.2 million hectares and 3.2 million hectares in 2011/12, respectively, from the previous year.

In the United States, the 2011/12 crop is expected to decline 13 percent to 15.8 million bales, from a year ago. Uzbekistan's 2011/12 crop is forecast at 4.2 million bales, up 2 percent from the previous year. The world total 2011/12 harvested cotton area is forecast to increase 7 percent to 35.8 million hectares, from a year ago. Global 2011/12 yields are projected at 751 kg/ha, nearly unchanged from the previous year.


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