Global cotton crop production to decline 6% from last year

Global Cotton Trade to Contract in 2012/13

China’s 2012/13 imports are forecast at 13.5 million bales, down 42 percent from a year ago due to a record level of 2012/13 beginning stocks, estimated at 27.3 million bales. 

The decline from previous year’s imports is made more pronounced by the June WASDE’s revision of China’s 2011/12 imports to 23.3 million bales, an increase of nearly 1.8 million bales from the previous month’s estimate, as shipments continue to arrive from Australia, Brazil, India, and the United States.

Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.6 million bales and 2.1 million bales in 2012/13, an increase of 14 percent and 6 percent, respectively, from the previous year.  Pakistan and Turkey are forecast to import 2.2 million bales and 3.0 million bales, respectively, up 83 percent and 30 percent, from the previous marketing year.

Global 2012/13 exports are forecast at 37 million bales, down 15 percent from the previous year.  The 2-percent export increases forecast in 2012/13 in Australia (4.3 million bales) and the United States (11.8 million bales) are far less than the declines projected in Brazil and India. 

Brazil is forecast to export 4.1 million bales in 2012/13, a 16-percent contraction from the preceding marketing year due to a smaller expected crop from which some of the exports will be derived. India, usually the world’s second largest exporter, is expected to export only 4 million bales in 2012/13, down 60 percent from the previous year.  If realized, India will lag behind Australia as the third largest exporter globally. 

Uzbekistan’s 2012/13 cotton exports are forecast at 2.6 million bales, up 4 percent from the preceding year.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)