US cotton production forecasts at 17mn bales for 2012

Cotton Demand and Stocks Revised

As the start of the 2012/13 season approaches, demand projections for the upcoming season were revised slightly this month; 2012/13 total U.S. cotton demand is forecast at 15.5 million bales, 600,000 bales above the latest 2011/12 estimate. 

U.S. exports for 2012/13 were increased 300,000 bales this month as higher projected foreign import demand is expected to support exports of 12.1 million bales.  U.S. mill demand for 2012/13 was reduced slightly to 3.4 million bales, reflecting recently reported mill activity that reduced the 2011/12 estimate this month. 

Despite global cotton trade being projected smaller in 2012/13, the U.S. share of world trade is forecast to rebound from 2011/12.  Larger U.S. exportable supplies are expected in 2012/13 as is less competition from some of the major cotton producers that reduced area. 

Based on the current projections, the U.S. share of world trade is forecast at 32 percent, between last season’s 27 percent and 2010/11’s 39 percent.

Based on the latest supply and demand estimates, 2012/13 stocks are forecast to rise for the second consecutive season from 3.3 million bales when the season begins on August 1st, to 4.8 million bales at season’s end. 

Just as actual stocks are likely to increase in 2012/13, the stocks-to-use ratio is also expected to rise from 22 percent in 2011/12 to 31 percent in 2012/13, the highest in four seasons.  The 2012/13 upland farm price is expected to range between 60 and 80 cents per pound, compared with the 2011/12 estimate of 91 cents and 2010/11’s 81.5 cents. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)