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Global cotton production to dip in 2012/13

19
Jul '12
Global Cotton Production To Decline in 2012/13

World 2012/13 cotton production is forecast at 113.8 million bales, a 7-percent decline from the previous year.  The expected output decline is driven mainly by a combination of relatively weak global cotton prices and rising production costs, encouraging major growers to shift area to more profitable alternatives. 

China and India are forecast to produce 30.5 million bales and 24.0 million bales, respectively, each a 9-percent decline from a year earlier.  China’s harvested area is also expected to decline 9 percent from the previous year to 5.0 million hectares in 2012/13.  India’s harvested area is forecast at 10.8 million hectares in 2012/13, down 11.5 percent from a year earlier. 

India’s production is revised down 4 percent from last month to 24.0 million bales, as low prices and a delay in the monsoon season have shaved production prospects.  Australia and Brazil are forecast to produce nearly 4.3 million bales and 7.0 million bales in 2012/13, a decline of 13 percent and 20 percent, respectively, from the previous year.  Australia’s harvested area is expected to decline 18 percent to 475,000 hectares, while Brazil’s area is forecast to contract 23 percent from a year earlier to nearly 1.1 million hectares. 

Pakistan and Uzbekistan are expected to produce 9.7 million bales and 4.1 million bales in 2012/13, down 9 percent and 2 percent, respectively, from the preceding year.  Area harvested in Pakistan and Uzbekistan is forecast to decline 3 percent from a year earlier to 3.1 million hectares and 1.3 million hectares, respectively.  

The United States and the African Franc Zone (AFZ) are forecast to produce 17.0 million bales and 3.1 million bales in 2012/13, up 9 percent and 2 percent, respectively, from the previous year.   Globally, 2012/13 harvested area is forecast at 33.3 million hectares, down 7 percent from a year earlier, and yield is projected at 745 kg/ha, similar to 2011/12.

World Cotton Consumption To Rebound, Stocks at Record in 2012/13

Global 2012/13 cotton mill use is forecast to increase 2 percent from a year earlier to 109.0 million bales.  China is expected to consume 39.5 million bales in 2012/13, down 1.5 bales (-3.7 percent) from the preceding year. 

If realized, the projected mill use will reduce China’s global share of cotton consumption to 36 percent, the lowest in 8 years.  The projected decline in China’s cotton mill use is expected to be more than offset by increases in other countries such as India, Pakistan, and Vietnam. 

India and Pakistan are forecast to consume 21.5 million bales and nearly 11.3 million bales, 5-percent and 10-percent increases, respectively.  Vietnam’s 2012/13 cotton consumption is expected to rise 9 percent from the previous year to nearly 1.8 million bales. 


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