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Demand for US cotton unchanged - USDA

18
Aug '12
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that in August, U.S. cotton demand for 2012/13 remains estimated at 15.5 million bales, 500,000 bales above last season but the second lowest since 1998/99.  Exports continue to account for the bulk of the demand and, despite a larger supply, U.S. shipments remain forecast at 12.1 million bales as a result of lower import demand expectations from China.  As a share of global trade, the 2012/13 U.S. export estimate indicates a U.S. share of 32.5 percent, 3 percentage points below the 5-year average.

With forecasts for U.S. cotton production to exceed demand in 2012/13, ending stocks are projected to increase 2.2 million bales to 5.5 million, the highest in four seasons.  Similarly, the stocks-to-use ratio of 35 percent is the highest since 2008/09.  The U.S. farm price was narrowed on each end of the range this month.  As of August, the 2012/13 upland price is forecast to range between 61 and 79 cents per pound. 
 
Although the 2011/12 season has ended, minor adjustments were made this month and the estimates will be finalized over the next several months as additional endof-year data become available.  U.S. exports for last season were increased based on shipment data published in the Export Sales report.  After adjustments based on data in the “export for own account” category, U.S. cotton exports for 2011/12 were placed at 11.7 million bales, 100,000 bales above the July estimate. 
 
In addition, preliminary end-of-year stock data for 2011/12 suggest that stocks are near 3.3 million bales, unchanged from last month as the “unaccounted” category was increased.  As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 equaled 22 percent, up from the previous two seasons.  The average U.S. farm price for 2011/12 is now estimated at 89.5 cents per pound, compared with 81.5 cents during 2010/11; the final estimate will be reported in October.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)


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