The general feeling of friendly near term, bearish longer term caused the inversion between December and March contracts to go out to over 200 points during the week. Cert stocks disappeared at a fast pace after continuous de-cert, and by the end of the week, they totaled at 71k bales only, almost non existent comparing to the 600k plus bales of stocks at the beginning of July.
The trend for the economy during the third quarter so far has been friendly commodities and equities as the S&P index broke into all time highs this week over 1700. The S&P is up almost 20% for the year which is the strongest rally we have seen in several years.
The northern hem crop still has a long way to go but after the last two seasons of disappointing results, there is a tendency to be pessimistic.
This could add to the bearish momentum in the 4th quarter if we do get better than expected results. China is still the wild card and will have to see if they support a correction into the low 80’s. For now the range is most likely to hold between 83/86 as we wait for more feedback on the crop.
| On 25th Oct 2021
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