ICE Cotton closes weaker this week

23 Nov '13

2 min read

ICE Cotton lost 100 pts on the week to close at 77.35 basis the H4 contract, although it was a much more interesting week than the final price action would suggest. Z3 First Notice Day was today and, after the Z/H spread dropped to nearly 400 points carry, a variety of parties likely stepped in to stop the board.

As such, cert stocks are expected to disappear in coming weeks as the cotton makes its way to mills in Turkey, China, and elsewhere. Despite Chinese inquiry having softened in recent weeks, overall export sales were solid again, leaving the US with only around 4.0 million bales to sell over the next 8 months, well under the current pace.

And once China settles the rules regarding impending reserve sales, mills there will likely come in to buy imports again – uncertainty, rather than price, is currently weighing on demand. As such, cotton may have again set a seasonal low around the Z3 delivery period, as with total OI under 200k lots for the first time in two years and non-commercials the most net short in 54 weeks, there is ample room for a rebound.

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its October meeting, which many analysts interpreted to mean that “tapering” is on the table for December. The minutes introduced discussion of additional accommodative measures that could be taken alongside any reduction in bond purchases, reminding us that even if tapering begins, monetary policy will not be restrictive for a long while. US equity markets continued to hit fresh highs as a result, with the S&P 500 passing 1,800 for the first time ever.

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