ICE Cotton trends recoups last week's losses

08 Feb '14

2 min read

ICE Cotton reversed last week’s losses and finished the week on a strong note, settling at 87.47 c/lbs basis the H4. Rising cert stocks (now at 217k bales) have failed to slow the market as US export sales continue to grow, making it extremely likely that the USDA will raise 13/14 exports in Monday’s S&D report; estimates range from 10.7 to more than 11.0 million bales.

Importantly, shipments picked up this week to 359k bales, which is more significant even than the headline sales number.

Unfixed on-call sales remain supportive, and it is now obvious that US ending stocks will be very thin this year – demand rationing is needed. New crop may be another story, and US planting will undoubtedly increase. The market will get its first major new crop estimate from the NCC meeting in Washington DC.

Global asset markets started the week as they’d ended the last – sharply lower – but by week’s end the sell-off has slowed and some investors begin to buy at cheaper valuations. The US payrolls report for January disappointed, but the S&P rose anyway as the weak number inspires hope (in some corners) that the Fed will slow the pace of tapering.

In Europe, the ECB this week acknowledged volatility in emerging markets, something the Fed has not done, while Australia seemed to have turned a new leaf with the Reserve Bank indicating that rates would hold for now.

Despite recent volatility, there does not look to be a full-blown crisis at present, which may have been the catalyst for some commodities to stage sharp rallies this week, having been oversold before.

ECOM

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