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2014/15 global cotton output down from last season - USDA

20 Aug '14
4 min read


Mill use in Pakistan and Turkey is expected to expand further in 2014/15. Pakistan’s use is projected at 11.0 million bales, similar to 2012/13, while Turkey’s consumption expands for the third consecutive season to 6.5 million bales.

Global cotton trade is projected at 36.3 million bales in 2014/15, 11 percent below last season and 22 percent below 2012/13’s record of 46.7 million bales.

The decline, USDA informs, is largely attributable to the anticipated reduction in China’s imports, which are now forecast at 8.0 million bales, compared with 13.6 million bales last season, as the Government is expected to limit imports in order to boost consumption of surplus domestic cotton supplies.

However, increases in several other countries will help offset a portion of China’s decline, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam.

Reduced global import demand for cotton is expected to limit shipments for many of the world’s exporting countries. Lower production in Australia will constrain exports, as will India’s lower crop and higher consumption. Export increases are seen from Brazil and the United States.

World cotton stocks are projected at a record 105.1 million bales in 2014/15, 5 percent above a year earlier and the fifth consecutive increase from 2009/10’s recent low of 47.1 million bales, the report reveals.

In 2014/15, China is expected to account for the bulk of these stocks with its own record of 62.4 million bales. The China stocks equate to more than half of this season’s global cotton consumption forecast.

As a result of the rising stocks and anticipated policy effects in China, global cotton prices are expected to decline in 2014/15. The Cotlook A-Index, which averaged $1.65 per pound in 2010/11, averaged about 91 cents per pound in 2013/14 and is likely to average below 80 cents per pound this season, the report concludes by saying.

Fibre2fashion News Desk - India

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