2015/16 global cotton output lowest in six years: USDA

19 Aug '15

3 min read

The August report of USDA informs that world cotton output in 2015/16 is forecast at 109.0 million bales, 2.5 million bales below last month's projection and 10 million bales below 2014/15.

The US government agriculture department attributed the decrease to declines for the United States, China, and India.

It has forecast global cotton area in 2015/16 at 31.3 million hectares, 7 per cent below 2014/15; the reduced area, coupled with a lower world yield at 757 kg/hectare.

It adds that due to these factors 2015/16 production is projected below consumption and would be the smallest crop since 2009/10.

For India, which is expected to be the largest producing country, cotton crop is projected at 29.0 million bales in 2015/16, about 2 per cent below last season's 29.5 million bales.

With a normal monsoon this season, a 7 per cent reduction in area is partially offset by a higher yield expectation.

In China, production is forecast at 26.0 million bales in 2015/16, 4 million bales below last season, with fewer incentives to plant cotton resulting in a reduced area of nearly 18 per cent in 2015/16.

Pakistan's crop is forecast at 10.2 million bales, nearly 4 per cent below 2014/15, while area is expected to rise 2 per cent, with reduction in yield, reducing Pakistan's production 400,000 bales in 2015/16.

Brazil's crop is forecast unchanged in 2015/16 at 7.0 million bales, as area and yield are projected to equal that of 2014/15.

World cotton consumption in 2015/16 is forecast at nearly 114.7 million bales, up slightly from last month and 2.5 per cent above the 2014/15 estimate.

World cotton trade is projected at 34.5 million bales in 2015/16, 3 per cent below last season due to China's anticipated reduction in raw cotton imports, forecast at 5.75 million bales, compared with 8.25 million bales in 2014/15.

However, increases for several other countries including Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Turkey are expected to offset some of China's decline.

Lower world import demand and reduced supplies for some exporting countries, including the United States, Brazil, and Uzbekistan are expected to limit their exports.

However, India's exports in 2015/16 are expected to expand significantly from 4.0 million bales in 2014/15 to 5.2 million bales this season.

Global cotton stocks are anticipated to decrease 5 per cent from 2014/15's record to 105.2 million bales in 2015/16, with stocks forecast to decline for most of the major producing countries.

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