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ECOM daily cotton market recap - Jan 17, 2007

18
Jan '07
Little news going around this morning prior to market opening, with only a modicum of export business being reported, and that being foreign growths to boot. An early call was for around 10 higher in the March, which actually was reversed as the March opened around 20-30 lower initially on some commercial selling on the opening.

The grain complex had corrected sharply yesterday, however the funds were back in the thick of the action today, with Beans, Corn and Wheat all posting early, double digit cent gains. With this in mind, the new crop Dec 07 cotton contract firmed early relative to the rest of the board, pushing as high as 60.35 with some ease as funds continue to chase the new crop to bridge the grains / cotton gap price gap.

New crop strength supported the March and May contracts which pushed higher, March pushing beyond 55 cents with some commercial resistance noted around these levels. It is assumed that around 55 cents there will be some decent equity hedging taking place out of the US trade, and this was notable out of the co-ops today. For the most part though it was a very quiet session. Option volatility has become very cheap of late, trading as narrow as 15% in nearby March and 17.5% in December 07. Estimated volume was a modest 11,000 contracts.

The weekly spec hedge report was a little surprising, revealing a 1.4% long compared to a 3.9% long last week. The surprise factor was that following last Friday's buying frenzy, most expected an increase in longs not a decrease.


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