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ECOM daily cotton market recap - Jan 19, 2007

20
Jan '07
Despite some solid export numbers this morning, the call was for unchanged prices and eventuated in a lower opening progressing through each contract opening.

Prices recovered soon after the re-opening, however commercial selling just over the unchanged level kept a lid on things and the market very quickly slid into a very tight, meaningless and on the whole boring trading range right around unchanged.

It was in fact very fitting that prices settled unchanged, such was the lack of impetus today. Spread trading was sporadic, options trading revolved again around volatility selling by one of the major merchants who was for the second consecutive week a huge seller of March 54 and 55 straddles for near 15% implied volatility. Estimated volume was very light at 11,130 lots.

This morning's US all export report was something of a resurgence in US sales, with a combined 271,700 running bales selling to a large variety of markets. China was the best customer with 77,800 net upland and pima bales.

Shipments were decent at 190,100 bales, though with 29 weeks to go in the marketing year, they need to average over 420,000 running bales per week to meet the USDA estimates. Realistically, the competitiveness (or lack there of) will likely keep the lid on US exports at around 14.5-15 million bales.


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