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Plexus Cotton market report

22
Jan '07
NY futures moved higher this week, with March gaining 49 points to close at 54.53 cents, while December advanced 155 points to close at 60.00 cents.

Even though last Friday's USDA supply/demand report was perceived to be bearish, an exceptionally bullish corn report came to the rescue and pulled the cotton market out of trouble. The resulting 'key reversal' put our market back on a firmer footing and also halted the recent slide in the AWP.

After trending lower for three consecutive weeks, the AWP will climb by 9 points to 44.34 cents as of Friday, with the daily rate calculating at 44.50 cents.

At first glance the 800'000 bales upward revision in US ending stocks may look a bit threatening, but when we take a few steps back and analyze the whole picture as it currently presents itself, the numbers appear quite friendly to us.

First of all, global consumption is at an all-time high of 121.17 mio bales, up by 5.37 mio bales from last season and over 12.35 mio bales more than two years ago and this trend is likely to continue thanks to strong local demand in emerging markets like China and India.

World production on the other hand amounts to 'only' 116.72 mio bales, which is 2.58 mio bales more than a year ago, but still 3.67 mio bales shy of the record crop in 2004/05.

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Plexus Cotton


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