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NCC 24th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey

Feb '07
US cotton producers intend to plant 13.21 million acres of cotton this spring, down 13.6 percent from 2006, according to the National Cotton Council's 24th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey (see table attached).

Upland cotton intentions are 12.85 million acres, a decrease of 14.1 percent from 2006. Extra long staple (ELS) intentions of 361,000 acres represent a 10.9 percent increase from 2006. The results were announced at the NCC's 2007 Annual Meeting, which began in Austin, Texas.

Assuming an average abandonment rate, total upland and ELS harvested area would be about 11.99 million acres. Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a cotton crop of 20.66 million bales. This compares to 2006's total production of 21.73 million bales.

Assuming average seed-to-lint ratios, 2007 cottonseed production is projected at 7.21 million tons, down from 7.66 million last year. The NCC survey was mailed in mid-December of 2006 to about 40 percent of the producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt. Surveys had to be returned by mid-January.

Dr. Stephen Slinsky, the NCC's senior economist, said, “assuming normal weather conditions, a U.S. crop between 20-21 million bales is very possible.” He said the NCC realizes there are still a number of questions about the reasons behind the higher yields observed in recent years. For most of the Cotton Belt, very respectable yields were obtained last year in spite ofsignificant adverse weather, leading us to use simple three-year average yields."

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