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Cotton market moves higher

12
Feb '07
A decidedly bearish USDA supply demand report-yet-the cotton market moves higher. Well, actually, the market eased higher and held within its long established three cent range. Stocks of cotton are declining around the world-with the exception of the US where the carryover stocks continue to increase with the release of subsequent monthly supply demand reports. New York futures will continue to be locked in the 52-56 cent trading range with most of its time hovering between 52.50 and 55.50 cents.

With the exception of an "okay" weekly export sales report for the US, the only other significant fundamental news this week was Friday's USDA supply demand report for February. The primary features of that report were an increase in world carryover, an increase in US carryover, a decrease in Indian carryover and a reduction of imports to China. The bearish report was well expected by the world cotton industry, and thus created little to no excitement in the world market.

USDA lowered it estimate of US export for the 2006-2007 marketing year by 1.2 million bales, dropping exports to 14.5 million bales. Year ending carryover was increased by the same 1.2 million bales, raising estimated US ending stocks to a dangerously high 8.3 million bales.

As suggested last week, USDA left domestic US consumption at 5.0 million bales. Nevertheless, there is great concern that domestic usage could drop another 200,000 bales to 4.8 million in the coming months. This becomes more important as it would then push carryover to an almost unprecedented 8.5 million bales.


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