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Plexus Cotton market report

Feb '07
NY futures rebounded this week, with March gaining 130 points to close at 54.95 cents, while May advanced 94 points to close at 53.17 cents and December rallied 129 points to close at 58.17 cents.

What opposite worlds! While the cotton market has been struggling to stay above its recent contract lows, grain markets were again on fire this week and surged to new contract highs.

The reason behind US$ 4.28 December Corn and US$ 8.38 November Soybeans is an unfavorable weather forecast for spring and early summer, which is apparently caused by a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions. This could potentially impact yields and thereby exacerbate an already tight stocks situation even further.

This strong showing of new crop corn and soybeans over the last couple of sessions couldn't have come at a better time for the cotton market.

After flirting again with contract lows yesterday (July actually set a new low of 52.25 cents on Wednesday), a relatively strong December contract began to act as an anchor to May and July and this eventually prompted a 150 points rebound over the last one-and-a-half sessions.

Of note in this regard is that the Dec/July spread closed at 422 points today, which means that we have basically reached full carry between July and December at 84 points/month.

Therefore, with this 'rubber band' fully stretched, July will only be able to go lower if December allows it to and based on the strength weare seeing in the grain markets this is highly unlikely to happen at the moment.

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Plexus Cotton, UK

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