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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 5, 2007

Mar '07
Cotton futures started out weak on the Electronic exchange this morning, with broad based security liquidation seen as the biggest foe to the market. Overnight weakness in Asia (Hang Seng –4%) was the early catalyst and the returning carry lenders out of Japan affected all markets, with the overnight grains down sharply across the board.

Add to this weakness in the energy sector, and by the time the open outcry pit opened, prices were being offered 50 lower. It was more a case of a lack of bids for Cotton to start out so weak, with any overnight hedging being scaled lower in anticipation of lower prices.

May soon worked lower towards 53.00 cents and actually pressed into a low of 52.85 soon after the re-opening, but the wheels didn't really appear to be wobbling off, and soon prices were attempting (feebly) to rebound, pressing back to the 53.50 area before being met with spec selling.

Spreads traded narrowly and in the options pit there was seen again a real assault on volatility, with May trading in as narrow as 15% early on, following one of the major merchants selling around 600 May 54 calls for 75 as well as offering the May 52/55 strangles for just 110 points.

Prices settled with substantial 73-80 point losses though not quite at their lows for the day. Estimated volume was restricted to 12,832 lots. Tomorrow's spec hedge report should show a fairly similar spec short position to last week, with the expanding open interest it may have actually diluted the % short position.

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