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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - March 13, 2007

Mar '07
E futures traded unchanged to a touch lower for much of the early morning, following on from yesterday's dead session, it looked like it was going to be much of the same.

The open outcry session opened to unchanged prices and even a little firmer early on, however there seemed a lack of a fund bid this morning which had been continuously supporting prices over the last week, and sensing this the locals began to sell quite aggressively in the May and July.

Soon there were few bids beneath the market and both contracts began cascading, in particularly the May, which dropped quickly down to 54.00 and upon breaching some resting sell stops out of the funds, May bottomed out at 53.50 some 105 points lower. The May / July spread widened out to at one stage beyond 90 points May premium.

Prices remained weak for the rest of both the outcry and electronic sessions, eventually closing between 66 and 91 lower in the active trading months. Estimated volume 20,179 lots, which was a vast improvement on yesterday's paltry result.

The spec hedge report this morning predictably showed the specs having increasing their net long position over the past week, increasing their net longs some 7,912 lots to 9,469 lots of 4.6% net of open interest.

An about turn for the May today, having once again looked so promising. Today's session took prices back beneath the 50 day moving average which negates much of the good lead up work. Next we will need to seehow the recent ST uptrend holds up at 53.50 on today's lows.

One thing that is very encouraging is that the 9 day moving average is converging on and about to overtake the 50 day average, suggesting some more spec involvement at higher levels.

Momentum wise things are quite even after today's sell off, now at 47.93 having started to trend up over the past week or so.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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