US export sales made some progress last week, with total Upland and Pima sales amounting to 336'000 running bales, of which China took 115'800 bales. For the season, total commitments now amount to 9.24 mio statistical bales, whereof 5.55 mio bales have so far been exported. Shipments are running about 3.31 mio bales behind last year's pace and they need to average some 432'000 statistical bales a week over the next four-and-a-half months in order to make the 14.0 mio bales USDA estimate.
The relatively slow pace of US exports (which is mainly due to a holdout by China up to this point,) and the likelihood of sharply rising ending stocks in the US, seem to be all the market is focusing on at the moment.
By dwelling so much on the current depressed state of affairs, many market participants are missing some of the bullish signs that are becoming visible on the horizon, such as the sharply reduced plantings in the US; the possibility of sizeable Chinese imports in the second and third quarters; the potentially explosive record short position in futures; hedge funds lurking on the buy side; rising retail sales and consumer spending in most economies; rapid money supply growth and a declining US dollar.