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March shows Chinese cotton imports at 78.6% less

24
Apr '07
Day before FND and the market grinded out the last of the K'07 open interest that wanted to get out. We will see tonight who is interested in the cert stocks after the K/N'07 spread widened out to 250 pts at the end after reaching almost inverted conditions about 8 weeks ago.

This represented better than full carry as there does not seem to be a big stopper interested in taking delivery. Futures volume was estimated at 18,000 contracts with 9,000 additional on-line.

We were close but unable to break contract lows in any of the '07 months including K'07. The July reached 51.30 or 79 points lower, but unable to find the contract low @ 51.07 as trade scale down buying managed to support the spec selling. Specs short position tomorrow should definitely be shorter as the specs were close to unchanged last week and may even be 4-5% short after last weeks selling.

We are seeing good demand for U.S. exports with the market trading at these levels. However, we are way off from our export record pace last season as the month of March showed Chinese imports from the U.S. at 78.6% less than a year ago as India was 81.6% higher. Other foreign countries have taken up the slack for the U.S. exports, but this should change as we get closer to 3rd quarter purchases.

With K'07 off the board, the market looks like it wants to build a bottom near these levels and we will have to wait and see if we can technically start to cross some moving averages and get the specs on the buying side.

Demand has been good and the export sales reports should remain strong with the market trading at these levels. Moving averages are both trending lower, with the 9 day continuing it's divergence away from the 50 day at 50.22. Momentum continues negative with the RSI down to 30.95, well and truly in oversold territory.

ECOM USA Inc


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