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USDA cotton projections to 2016

May '07
With global cotton consumption growing dramatically, international trade has become increasingly important in world cotton markets. Not only has textile trade liberalization helped boost world cotton demand through increased efficiency, but geographic shifts in the mill use of cotton have increased the role of trade in meeting the global textile industry's need for cotton.

Trade's importance has rebounded in recent years as China's and, to a lesser extent, Pakistan's textile sectors have grown substantially faster than their cotton production.

Click here to view graphical presentation:

• The textile industries in China, India, and Pakistan are the major beneficiaries of textile trade liberalization through the elimination of Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas.
• China has been importing record amounts of cotton as its textile industry's growth rapidly accelerated with a booming economy and WTO accession. Both its textile industry and its cotton imports are expected to grow more slowly than the rapid increase since 2001. However, during the next decade, the increase in cotton imports by China is projected to more than offset the decline in imports by other countries, and China accounts for 47 percent of world imports by 2016.
• Pakistan has emerged as a major importer in recent years, and is expected to remain in this role throughout the projection period, eventually overtaking Turkey as the second-largest global market.
• In recent years, Turkey's textile industry has benefited from favorable trade access to the EU, its major market for textile and apparel exports. However, the end of the MFA quotas gives lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Consequently, Turkey's cotton imports are projected to decline slowly over the next 10 years.

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