Interviews
USDA puts up strong forecast for China cotton
04 May '07
3 min read
Chinese stock numbers continue to be the wild card due to the lack of consistent government and industry reporting. However, industry observers speculate that the large 2006 domestic crop (almost 1.0 MMT greater than the previous year) and imports late in MY05/06 swelled stocks and these were slowly worked down throughout MY06/07.
The “consignment trade” remains strong and provides about 400,000 MT of cotton from various origins stored in China's bonded warehouses. While this cotton is physically in China and it is generally thought of as local stocks, it has not crossed China's customs border and is technically not imported until it goes through customs and is delivered to Chinese mills.
Production:
China's cotton production for MY07/08 is forecast at 6.5 MMT, down 230,000 MT from MY06/07. Even though planted area is forecast to grow by three percent, yield is likely to return to normal or slightly above average following the record yield in the previous year.
China's cotton planted area has fluctuated in recent years in response to price swings and comparative revenue versus other crops. However, a relatively stable cotton price combined with the record yield contributed to relatively higher profit to cotton farmers in MY06/07 and will result in the higher plantings in MY07/08.
Although the forecasts made by different agencies and individual provinces vary, the general consensus of Chinese experts is that the total cotton area is likely to grow slightly. Below are some of the influential conclusions published by of the most well-known organizations in Chinese cotton production, research, and analysis.
Click here to read more:
The “consignment trade” remains strong and provides about 400,000 MT of cotton from various origins stored in China's bonded warehouses. While this cotton is physically in China and it is generally thought of as local stocks, it has not crossed China's customs border and is technically not imported until it goes through customs and is delivered to Chinese mills.
Production:
China's cotton production for MY07/08 is forecast at 6.5 MMT, down 230,000 MT from MY06/07. Even though planted area is forecast to grow by three percent, yield is likely to return to normal or slightly above average following the record yield in the previous year.
China's cotton planted area has fluctuated in recent years in response to price swings and comparative revenue versus other crops. However, a relatively stable cotton price combined with the record yield contributed to relatively higher profit to cotton farmers in MY06/07 and will result in the higher plantings in MY07/08.
Although the forecasts made by different agencies and individual provinces vary, the general consensus of Chinese experts is that the total cotton area is likely to grow slightly. Below are some of the influential conclusions published by of the most well-known organizations in Chinese cotton production, research, and analysis.
Click here to read more:
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
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