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Cotton sales & exports this week may show decrease

08
May '07
Another unusually quiet day in the cotton pit as the good weather in NY must be keeping the locals on the golf course. With the May delivery behind us and so many spring holidays, it seems that even the mills are taking a few days to rest. This is very unusual considering that we are less than 100 pts from contract lows.

Looking at the chart, we still have not been able to close above the 49.00 level and fill in that gap in N'07. Another sideways day, which was good, but still hard to get too excited as bearish option still control a good percentage of the activity. Combined futures were estimated at 9,000 lots and options were over 10,000.

We are expecting a small increase again tomorrow in the spec short position and we are also expecting very few changes with the May USDA forecast coming out on Friday. The sales and exports this week will probably show another decrease in sales with shipments staying steady.

Business just does not seem to be knocking down the door, but it is steady from all growths. Plantings are still behind schedule as wet cool weather in West Texas as well as dry conditions in the South have kept producers back, but this is starting to change. As of May 6, 2007, we are showing 32% planted compared to 42% last year and 38% for the five year average.

Technically the moving averages still are far apart, but the RSI continues to be signaling an oversold market and the continuous spot month chart is showing a double bottom considering where May reached this week near 46 cents.

Oil and grains were all lower today as the equity markets continue to move higher. The cotton market still has some work to do, but this sideways action recently is helping. We need to break through 49.00 cents, fill the gap and hold it for a few days, but that might take a few more days.

Click to view graphical presentation:

ECOM USA Inc


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