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ECOM daily cotton markets recap - May 8, 2007

May '07
Much better volume today compared to the last two sessions, but still not an impressive move technically. Market was trading electronically prior to the pit opening down 25 pts where the lows of the days were made once the market opened of 48.45.

However, this did not last long as good short covering from the specs and locals pushed the market to 1-week highs at 49.19 as they were trying to uncover buy stops estimated to be above 49.25. This would represent the top of the gap, that still exists on the pit trading chart. Volume was respectable with a combined 13,500 futures and 6,300 in options.

The sell off on the close came with nervous locals deciding to take profits after more bearish trade options came in on the close. The market is making an effort as it wants to go higher, but we need to get a close above 49.00 in N'07 and preferably fill in the gap before we can make a run at 50.00 cents.

There is also a chance we could see a test of the lows in the short term so it feels like a nearby trading range between 48/50 is realistic while we try to consolidate and build a stronger technical case for going higher. Specs only increased their short position from 2.7 to 4.4% this week, so we cannot say they are oversold and unable to sell weakness.

Buying dips seems to be a safe call at the moment as we get closer to the blend and some reports later this week. Technical picture is looking better, but it is hard to get too excited until we seea strong day that can hold through the close.

Grains take another hit today as the equity markets remain stable. Another low volume and limited volatility session today for cotton. Prices consolidated higher around the 9 day moving average. July was unable to close above this average, but the high today made the cross.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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