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Second highest sales of season with combined 550,000 cotton bales

May '07
Another narrow range as the market struggled to go higher, but also was firm on the close. Seems like the locals as well as several others are happy to be long going into tomorrows S&D report. Sales and shipments were very strong today as we saw the second highest sales of the season with a combined 550,000 bales.

This was a 30% increase from last week, and shipments were within expectations at about the same amount as last week with 350,000 bales. Volume was average with an estimated 9,158 contracts in futures and 7,139 in options.

We are expecting an uneventful S&D report tomorrow, but we need something to break us out of this current trading range between 48.75 - 49.25. Maybe tomorrow will bring enough volume to break through the upside resistance at 49.25 and try to make some new highs. The downside feels limited at the moment, but we are expecting a possible cut in U.S. exports and will have to see how the market reacts to small increase in ending stocks.

Overall the basis is strong and demand is good as we are hosting a large Chinese delegation in Austin tomorrow. They will spend a few days traveling between Mississippi, Tennessee and South Carolina as they sign some of the contracts for the large sales that have been made recently.

Technically we closed above the 9-day moving average and this sideways consolidation is a positive trend. Will have to see if the specs continue to be sellers since they have not been rewarded lately fortheir efforts. Market will still have trouble getting through 50 cents, but at the moment the momentum is turning to the upside.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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