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Cotton crop plantings increase to 46% from 32% previous week

May '07
After the close yesterday near contract and 3-year spot month lows, the market responded today with a healthy bounce after good business was done again last night. The market wanted to go higher as locals and friendly options found little resistance up to almost 48.00.

We will have to see if the market can build off this bounce and try to protect the latest contract low (46.85). Volume was respectable again today with 15,000 estimated in futures and the same amount in options. The spec/hedge position was a bit of a surprise with only a small change from last week.(4.8% short compared to 4.4% last week).

With only 21 trading days before N'07 option FND, it will be difficult to see a significant rally after so many bearish options have been put into play. There was some profit taking in the Z'07 options today as they have more long term potential to rally.

There seems to be a short term range forming between 47/49 in N'07, and we will see how long that can hold. Crop plantings increased to 46% from 32% the previous week. We are still behind from this time last year of 51%, which is also the 5 year average.

There still seems to be some delays in West Texas, Oklahoma and Georgia which are all over 10% behind schedule compared to the 5-year averages. However, the nearby weather reports in these areas are looking more optimistic.

Technically, the open interest fell on Monday despite the market going lower. This in itself is friendly, but the spec position continues to be an issue with more room to sell if the market does not hold these levels. RSI is still in oversold territory and we are close to the 9 day moving average.

We will have to hold our breath and see a few more days of friendly action before we can feel better about N'07 having any chance to break 50.00 cents before expiration.

Click here to view graphical presentation:


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