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ECOM daily cotton markets recap

May '07
Volume was back to the normal range again today of 15,000 futures and 12,000 options. The market traded in a narrow range as it had trouble getting through 50.00 cents. The commitment of traders showed the specs may have gone slightly shorter as of next Tuesdays report, but there has definitely been some spec and local buying after the big jump on Tuesday.

Cotton under the loan fell 815,000 bales this week as of Tuesday, but we expect the large redemptions were made on Wednesday and Thursday so we will not see that figure officially until next Friday. West Texas is starting to become more of an issue the closer we get to the end of May.

Wet conditions are in the forecast for next week and soil temperature is also a concern. On behalf of our office in Lubbock, we have prepared some more detailed comments on the conditions across the Texas cotton growing are and the key dates in the short term planting picture. Georgia and other parts of the Eastern territory are still a problem as well with dry conditions and trouble getting cotton in the ground before the insurance cut off date.

Technically, the market is starting to show signs of life as the Relative Strength Index has moved from lows in the 20's back to the midpoint of 50. We still have a gap between 47.90 and 48.40 which at the moment is giving support to the market.

Support starts to be uncovered at 49.50, 49.25, 49.10, 48.64 and 48.40 at the top of the gap. While resistance starts at49.90, 50.20 , 50.40 and 50.73. Considering the selling pressure from the trade over 50.00 cents along with the gap below the market, it is still difficult to make a case for a strong finish for the N'07 contract.

Click to view graphical presentation:


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