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Plexus cotton market report

May '07
The futures market ended the week mixed after a wild ride, as July advanced 56 points to close at 49.59 cents, while December dropped 6 points to close at 53.86 cents.

This may have been a watershed week in the cotton market, for two reasons. First of all, with the AWP now trending higher, we should see a huge amount of loan cotton come into the marketplace before midnight tonight, with estimates ranging from 3-7 mio bales.

As of tomorrow, the AWP will jump from 40.12 to 41.16 cents, but the daily calculation as of this morning was already at 41.84 cents and based on the forward A-index the AWP would amount to no less than 43.94 cents five weeks from now if new crop prices were not to change to the downside.

Also of note in that regard is that the Indian quote for current crop is now "nominal". Apart from lifting the index by an additional 25 points once removed, this has the psychological effect of reminding traders that one of the cheapest competitors this season has dropped out of the game.

The second major change this week was on the technical front, as the market had its biggest daily gain since last December in what was probably the heaviest volume ever traded outside the rolling period. In the process the market surged past the highs of the previous eleven sessions and today it managed to consolidate yesterday's gains, closing at the highest level since April 27th, nearly three cents above Mondays' contract low of 46.85 cents.

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